I will provide nothing but Picks.
No spreads this week.
Baylor at Texas A&M
Texas A&M will be wanting blood after humiliation at Miami last week.
Texas A&M
Michigan State at Wisconsin.
Both Teams are 4 and 0 but Michigan State has looked a lot better.
Michigan State
Penn State at Illinois
Illinois is much better than last year UPSET SPECIAL.
Illinois
California at Oregon.
Oregon has proven more in my opinion take them to win.
Mississippi State at South Carolina.
South Carolina will win but a big scare will come from Mississippi State.
Auburn at Florida.
Florida by 30. Auburn has been garbage this entire year so far.
Last two picks are Longshots but I see one of them as an Upset.
Ohio State at Minnesota
Minnesota although did not play well against Purdue last week, they do have an incredible clip at 3rd down Conversions. UPSET SPECIAL
USC at Washington.
If Washington can control the clock, they might have a shot. UPSET SPECIAL.
Good Luck tomorrow
Aaron
Friday, September 28, 2007
Friday, September 21, 2007
Courtesy of D.C. Sports Bog for College Football
This Week's Vegas Oddsmakers' Top 25
Fans of lightly regarded teams who keep sending me hate mail, I don't make these rankings. These are the ineffable wisdom of Nevada Oddsmakers, through the fingers of Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Don't hate the punter, hate the Gambling Industry.
Biggest frauds, according to Vegas: Louisville is ranked 11 spots too high by the AP. Clemson is ranked 10 spots too high. Texas A&M is ranked nine spots too high. Kentucky is ranked eight spots too high. Virginia Tech is ranked five spots too high.
Biggest sleepers, according to Vegas: Florida State is ranked 14 spots too low by the AP. Arizona State is ranked 13 spots too low. Missouri is ranked 10 spots too low. Arkansas is ranked eight spots too low. Nebraska is ranked seven spots too low. UCLA and Georgia Tech, coming off disastrous performances that swayed weak-minded AP voters, are ranked six spots too low.
Vegas looked smart when: Florida State, snubbed by the AP but beloved by Vegas, got a fairly nice road win at Colorado. Clemson, which Vegas has been cool on, struggled didn't crush a I-AA Football League Championship club. Vegas darling Missouri won handily, as did Vegas darling Arizona State. Again, Wisconsin struggled against a team Wisconsin should not struggle against.
Vegas looked dumb when: Vegas fave Nebraska didn't do much with Southern Cal; heck with that, Vegas says, we still love Nebraska. Vegas fave Georgia Tech (11th last week) didn't do much with BC. Vegas faves Miami and BYU both looked bad; both dropped out of Vegas's rankings this week.
Games to watch: Unimpressed-by-Vegas Clemson is at N.C. State; expect a smaller-than-expected line. Impressed-by-Vegas Arizona State hosts Oregon State; expect a larger-than-expected line. Washington is at UCLA; Vegas expects a nice UCLA rebound.
(On the week's actual big games--LSU/South Carolina and 'Bama/Georgia--Vegas and the AP are mostly agreed.)
Numbers after the jump. AP rankings in parentheses.
1. Southern Cal (1)
2. LSU (2)
3. Oklahoma (4)
4. West Virginia (5)
5. Florida (3)
6. Texas (7)
7. Penn State (10)
8. Ohio State (8)
9. Oregon (13)
10. California (6)
11. Wisconsin (9)
12. South Carolina (12)
13. Boston College (14)
14. Rutgers (11)
15t. Missouri (25)
15t. Arizona State (28)
17. Nebraska (24)
18. Arkansas (26)
19. Alabama (16)
20. Florida State (34t)
21. Georgia Tech (27)
22. Virginia Tech (17)
23. Hawaii (19)
24. UCLA (30)
25t. Georgia (22)
25t. South Florida (23)
25t. Clemson (15)
28. Purdue (33)
29t. Louisville (18)
29t. Texas A&M (20)
29t. Kentucky (21)
This is the work Dan Steinberg who has his a D.C. Sports Bog, http://blog.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2007/09/this_weeks_vegas_oddsmakers_to_3.html
Once Again NOT MY WORK IT IS HIS, THIS DISCLAIMER IS SO I DO NOT GET SUED FOR PLAGIARISM.
Fans of lightly regarded teams who keep sending me hate mail, I don't make these rankings. These are the ineffable wisdom of Nevada Oddsmakers, through the fingers of Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Don't hate the punter, hate the Gambling Industry.
Biggest frauds, according to Vegas: Louisville is ranked 11 spots too high by the AP. Clemson is ranked 10 spots too high. Texas A&M is ranked nine spots too high. Kentucky is ranked eight spots too high. Virginia Tech is ranked five spots too high.
Biggest sleepers, according to Vegas: Florida State is ranked 14 spots too low by the AP. Arizona State is ranked 13 spots too low. Missouri is ranked 10 spots too low. Arkansas is ranked eight spots too low. Nebraska is ranked seven spots too low. UCLA and Georgia Tech, coming off disastrous performances that swayed weak-minded AP voters, are ranked six spots too low.
Vegas looked smart when: Florida State, snubbed by the AP but beloved by Vegas, got a fairly nice road win at Colorado. Clemson, which Vegas has been cool on, struggled didn't crush a I-AA Football League Championship club. Vegas darling Missouri won handily, as did Vegas darling Arizona State. Again, Wisconsin struggled against a team Wisconsin should not struggle against.
Vegas looked dumb when: Vegas fave Nebraska didn't do much with Southern Cal; heck with that, Vegas says, we still love Nebraska. Vegas fave Georgia Tech (11th last week) didn't do much with BC. Vegas faves Miami and BYU both looked bad; both dropped out of Vegas's rankings this week.
Games to watch: Unimpressed-by-Vegas Clemson is at N.C. State; expect a smaller-than-expected line. Impressed-by-Vegas Arizona State hosts Oregon State; expect a larger-than-expected line. Washington is at UCLA; Vegas expects a nice UCLA rebound.
(On the week's actual big games--LSU/South Carolina and 'Bama/Georgia--Vegas and the AP are mostly agreed.)
Numbers after the jump. AP rankings in parentheses.
1. Southern Cal (1)
2. LSU (2)
3. Oklahoma (4)
4. West Virginia (5)
5. Florida (3)
6. Texas (7)
7. Penn State (10)
8. Ohio State (8)
9. Oregon (13)
10. California (6)
11. Wisconsin (9)
12. South Carolina (12)
13. Boston College (14)
14. Rutgers (11)
15t. Missouri (25)
15t. Arizona State (28)
17. Nebraska (24)
18. Arkansas (26)
19. Alabama (16)
20. Florida State (34t)
21. Georgia Tech (27)
22. Virginia Tech (17)
23. Hawaii (19)
24. UCLA (30)
25t. Georgia (22)
25t. South Florida (23)
25t. Clemson (15)
28. Purdue (33)
29t. Louisville (18)
29t. Texas A&M (20)
29t. Kentucky (21)
This is the work Dan Steinberg who has his a D.C. Sports Bog, http://blog.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2007/09/this_weeks_vegas_oddsmakers_to_3.html
Once Again NOT MY WORK IT IS HIS, THIS DISCLAIMER IS SO I DO NOT GET SUED FOR PLAGIARISM.
Let's Try this Again
Well so far this year in College Football we have had many compelling stories from Appalachian State's huge UPSET of Michigan, Notre Dame not being able to muster up an offensive touchdown, and the always amazing SEC and the many great teams of their conference.
This Particular Post I want to Focus on Three Main subjects: the first one being the rise of the Sun Belt Conference, 2ndly the state of Texas A&M football and the Big 12, and lastly my picks for the week.
To me the Sunbelt conference, it may still be the worst conference in the Football Bowl Subdivision formally the Division 1A. However with Troy wiping the floor with Oklahoma State, Florida Atlantic putting up 42 on Minnesota and winning, Arkansas State scoring 45 on SMU. Not to mention you could also throw in Florida International barely losing to Miami last week and Middle Tennessee State putting up -42 on Louisville. I also think that UNT will make a run this year and possibly beat
Navy in Week 10. By the end of this year they might pull themselves from out of the cellar of the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Sunbelt conference has a chance this weekend to make some more ground when Arkansas State, arguably the best team in the Conference goes to Tennessee, and Florida International goes to Kansas, potential upset.
The state of the Big 12. I do have to disclose I am an Aggie, however I can't seem them beating out Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas right now after their defense got pounded by Miami. I'll first talk about A&M then go onto a Big 12 tangent. Last night from what I saw, I was very Discouraged by All sides of the ball, but most importantly I'm saying it right now, Coach Fran has to win 10 games this year or he is getting canned. What the hell was he thinking for only giving Jovorskie Lane the ball twice. Fran the best way for your Run Dominated team to win is run the ball down the other team's throat. Jovorskie Should have gotten the ball between 20-30 times, Stephen Mcgee should run it between 10-15 times, and Mike Goodson should have gotten it between 15-20. The Aggies pass offense is not as developed as the Run. for Coach Fran to keep his job he has to deliver three of the five big games left Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas. Victories over Baylor, OK State, and Kansas are without asking. One final note for Texas A&M football is simply that until they get rid of Fran I don't see A&M going to the next level and also A&M needs to play better competition in the Non Conference. Maybe rekindle the rivalry with LSU, Rice, TCU, or maybe even any team from a BCS conference that is really decent team.
The Big 12 is deep trouble this year. I see only one team that is good enough to National Title Worthy and that is Oklahoma and I'm curious to see how Oklahoma does against Tulsa tonight, arguably their best competition this year and it is their first away game. It's easy pounding defenseless Utah State and University of North Texas. Tulsa is 2-0 with a hard fought win against Brigham Young last week.
Texas could just as easily be 0-3 as they are 3-0. Arkansas State had I believe 7 possessions inside Texas's 20 yard line with only 13 points to boot, TCU was dominating them then fell apart in the 2nd half, and take away that terrible call by the Refs when the clock was down to double 00 four two real time seconds on a critical four down play early in the 1st quarter and no call. Central Florida played amazing and is a sleeper team this year for C-USA.
Baylor is just Baylor with a win over the perennial Football Championship Subdivision power Texas State by only 1 touchdown and then throw in their amazing performance over a not so powerful Rice team. They Play at Buffalo tomorrow and I believe they will be beaten and you can call it an Upset.
Texas Tech as always has an amazing offense and their defense is also good, however one of Texas Tech's biggest problems is they have yet to get Big wins in the same year against both Texas and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State might give them some problems this week, but expect Tech to score betwen 38-49 points and win a close one. Maybe Tech can blow them out but I see a close one.
Oklahoma State at 1-2 has been a huge disappointment this year at 1-2 with two terrible loses to Georgia and Troy. They play Texas Tech this weekend and they will have to rely on their Offense to keep them Going against a Texas Tech team that always has a potent offense. If OK State's Defense can stop Texas Tech's offense they might have a chance, but not very likely. OK State still has a lot to prove.
Missouri has to have a great year this year. Chase Daniel I believe is a Junior and he is a great quarterback, they also have Tony Temple at running back who can contribute a lot. If they beat Nebraska at home, they win the North for the first time.
Nebraska had their chance to prove themselves against USC last week, and they squandered that opportunity. Nebraska can still win the North if they defeat Missouri on the Road. Be wary of Texas A&M when they come into Lincoln, ESPN radio Host Colin Cowherd named it as one of his Upset Specials of the year.
Kansas has gotten better, but I cannot see them making up any ground out all this year. Wait to see progress before I see them moving up in the North.
Kansas State has gotten better and that win against Texas where they Rampage Jacksoned Colt Mccoy. I see them finishing third behind Missouri and Nebraska in the North, will also wait to see what happens.
Colorado is improving with Coach Dan Hawkins with them playing well against Florida State last week with their tough defense and don't forget last year's big win over Texas Tech. Their Quarterback Cody Hawkins is 60-1 as a starting quarterback. expect a four win season out of Colorado nothing more.
Finally Iowa State, Now this is where it gets fun. I really don't know which Iowa State team will show up. The team that lost two straight to Kent State and Football Championship Subdivision Top 10 team Northern Iowa, or the team that went out last week and defeated cross state rival Iowa on 5 Field Goals. They could be 7 win team but their inconsistency will be their downfall expect wins maybe against Colorado or potentially Kansas.
Whew that was alot finally I give ya'll 10 picks with and a few upset specials thrown in their.
Disclosure I do not condone Gambling on these games and but I will mention the spreads. --- are my picks to win straight up.
#12 South Carolina at ---#2 LSU -18. South Carolina is Overrated in my opinion LSU wins and beats the spread.
East Carolina at ---#5 West Virginia -24. East Carolina has given trouble to Virginia Tech and has beaten North Carolina. West Virginia will win but will not beat the spread.
---Temple at Bowling Green -21. To share a quick story I watched the tail end of the UCONN-Temple football game last week and a controversial call took away a touchdown for Temple on an amazing play that would have won them the game. Temple was a 30 point underdog and lost by 5. Temple is rapidly improving. UPSET SPECIAL TEMPLE Over Bowling Green.
-3 ---Illinois at Indiana. Illinois is a rapidly improving team and I think will get a bowl bid this year in the Big 10 possibly a sleeper, don't discount Indiana who will be moving up in the Big 10, Illinois ties spread or beats it.
Duke at --- Navy -14. Duke has not done well vs. Navy normally and I feel Navy will win, but possibly Duke showing some more life last week after beating Northwestern, Duke beats Spread.
---Air Force at BYU -12. Wow Air Force over BYU, Air Force defeated TCU last week, If they can slow down BYU's amazing offense look out UPSET SPECIAL.
#3 --- Oklahoma -24 at Tulsa. Tulsa will beat the spread as OU faces their first tough test on the road. Oklahoma prevails.
#10 --- Penn State -3 at Michigan. Expect Michigan to really want this one. However Penn State although not good I see winning and suspiciously small spread.
---Michigan State -11 1/2 at Notre Dame. I see Notre Dame not scoring a Offensive Touchdown this game and Michigan State rolls big time.
---Arkansas State at Tennessee -25. UPSET SPECIAL Tennessee has been disappointing this year and Arkansas State has done well on the road vs Texas.
One more for fun
#21 ---Kentucky at Arkansas -7 look for Arkansas to be wanting some blood after barely losing to Alabama, Kentucky beats spread, but Arkansas wins.
Sorry for such a long first blog but the next one will be shorter. Thanks Gig Em and God Bless,
The Unassailable One Aaron M.
This Particular Post I want to Focus on Three Main subjects: the first one being the rise of the Sun Belt Conference, 2ndly the state of Texas A&M football and the Big 12, and lastly my picks for the week.
To me the Sunbelt conference, it may still be the worst conference in the Football Bowl Subdivision formally the Division 1A. However with Troy wiping the floor with Oklahoma State, Florida Atlantic putting up 42 on Minnesota and winning, Arkansas State scoring 45 on SMU. Not to mention you could also throw in Florida International barely losing to Miami last week and Middle Tennessee State putting up -42 on Louisville. I also think that UNT will make a run this year and possibly beat
Navy in Week 10. By the end of this year they might pull themselves from out of the cellar of the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Sunbelt conference has a chance this weekend to make some more ground when Arkansas State, arguably the best team in the Conference goes to Tennessee, and Florida International goes to Kansas, potential upset.
The state of the Big 12. I do have to disclose I am an Aggie, however I can't seem them beating out Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas right now after their defense got pounded by Miami. I'll first talk about A&M then go onto a Big 12 tangent. Last night from what I saw, I was very Discouraged by All sides of the ball, but most importantly I'm saying it right now, Coach Fran has to win 10 games this year or he is getting canned. What the hell was he thinking for only giving Jovorskie Lane the ball twice. Fran the best way for your Run Dominated team to win is run the ball down the other team's throat. Jovorskie Should have gotten the ball between 20-30 times, Stephen Mcgee should run it between 10-15 times, and Mike Goodson should have gotten it between 15-20. The Aggies pass offense is not as developed as the Run. for Coach Fran to keep his job he has to deliver three of the five big games left Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas. Victories over Baylor, OK State, and Kansas are without asking. One final note for Texas A&M football is simply that until they get rid of Fran I don't see A&M going to the next level and also A&M needs to play better competition in the Non Conference. Maybe rekindle the rivalry with LSU, Rice, TCU, or maybe even any team from a BCS conference that is really decent team.
The Big 12 is deep trouble this year. I see only one team that is good enough to National Title Worthy and that is Oklahoma and I'm curious to see how Oklahoma does against Tulsa tonight, arguably their best competition this year and it is their first away game. It's easy pounding defenseless Utah State and University of North Texas. Tulsa is 2-0 with a hard fought win against Brigham Young last week.
Texas could just as easily be 0-3 as they are 3-0. Arkansas State had I believe 7 possessions inside Texas's 20 yard line with only 13 points to boot, TCU was dominating them then fell apart in the 2nd half, and take away that terrible call by the Refs when the clock was down to double 00 four two real time seconds on a critical four down play early in the 1st quarter and no call. Central Florida played amazing and is a sleeper team this year for C-USA.
Baylor is just Baylor with a win over the perennial Football Championship Subdivision power Texas State by only 1 touchdown and then throw in their amazing performance over a not so powerful Rice team. They Play at Buffalo tomorrow and I believe they will be beaten and you can call it an Upset.
Texas Tech as always has an amazing offense and their defense is also good, however one of Texas Tech's biggest problems is they have yet to get Big wins in the same year against both Texas and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State might give them some problems this week, but expect Tech to score betwen 38-49 points and win a close one. Maybe Tech can blow them out but I see a close one.
Oklahoma State at 1-2 has been a huge disappointment this year at 1-2 with two terrible loses to Georgia and Troy. They play Texas Tech this weekend and they will have to rely on their Offense to keep them Going against a Texas Tech team that always has a potent offense. If OK State's Defense can stop Texas Tech's offense they might have a chance, but not very likely. OK State still has a lot to prove.
Missouri has to have a great year this year. Chase Daniel I believe is a Junior and he is a great quarterback, they also have Tony Temple at running back who can contribute a lot. If they beat Nebraska at home, they win the North for the first time.
Nebraska had their chance to prove themselves against USC last week, and they squandered that opportunity. Nebraska can still win the North if they defeat Missouri on the Road. Be wary of Texas A&M when they come into Lincoln, ESPN radio Host Colin Cowherd named it as one of his Upset Specials of the year.
Kansas has gotten better, but I cannot see them making up any ground out all this year. Wait to see progress before I see them moving up in the North.
Kansas State has gotten better and that win against Texas where they Rampage Jacksoned Colt Mccoy. I see them finishing third behind Missouri and Nebraska in the North, will also wait to see what happens.
Colorado is improving with Coach Dan Hawkins with them playing well against Florida State last week with their tough defense and don't forget last year's big win over Texas Tech. Their Quarterback Cody Hawkins is 60-1 as a starting quarterback. expect a four win season out of Colorado nothing more.
Finally Iowa State, Now this is where it gets fun. I really don't know which Iowa State team will show up. The team that lost two straight to Kent State and Football Championship Subdivision Top 10 team Northern Iowa, or the team that went out last week and defeated cross state rival Iowa on 5 Field Goals. They could be 7 win team but their inconsistency will be their downfall expect wins maybe against Colorado or potentially Kansas.
Whew that was alot finally I give ya'll 10 picks with and a few upset specials thrown in their.
Disclosure I do not condone Gambling on these games and but I will mention the spreads. --- are my picks to win straight up.
#12 South Carolina at ---#2 LSU -18. South Carolina is Overrated in my opinion LSU wins and beats the spread.
East Carolina at ---#5 West Virginia -24. East Carolina has given trouble to Virginia Tech and has beaten North Carolina. West Virginia will win but will not beat the spread.
---Temple at Bowling Green -21. To share a quick story I watched the tail end of the UCONN-Temple football game last week and a controversial call took away a touchdown for Temple on an amazing play that would have won them the game. Temple was a 30 point underdog and lost by 5. Temple is rapidly improving. UPSET SPECIAL TEMPLE Over Bowling Green.
-3 ---Illinois at Indiana. Illinois is a rapidly improving team and I think will get a bowl bid this year in the Big 10 possibly a sleeper, don't discount Indiana who will be moving up in the Big 10, Illinois ties spread or beats it.
Duke at --- Navy -14. Duke has not done well vs. Navy normally and I feel Navy will win, but possibly Duke showing some more life last week after beating Northwestern, Duke beats Spread.
---Air Force at BYU -12. Wow Air Force over BYU, Air Force defeated TCU last week, If they can slow down BYU's amazing offense look out UPSET SPECIAL.
#3 --- Oklahoma -24 at Tulsa. Tulsa will beat the spread as OU faces their first tough test on the road. Oklahoma prevails.
#10 --- Penn State -3 at Michigan. Expect Michigan to really want this one. However Penn State although not good I see winning and suspiciously small spread.
---Michigan State -11 1/2 at Notre Dame. I see Notre Dame not scoring a Offensive Touchdown this game and Michigan State rolls big time.
---Arkansas State at Tennessee -25. UPSET SPECIAL Tennessee has been disappointing this year and Arkansas State has done well on the road vs Texas.
One more for fun
#21 ---Kentucky at Arkansas -7 look for Arkansas to be wanting some blood after barely losing to Alabama, Kentucky beats spread, but Arkansas wins.
Sorry for such a long first blog but the next one will be shorter. Thanks Gig Em and God Bless,
The Unassailable One Aaron M.
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